US Secretary of State Anthony J. Blanken's recent warning letter to President Ashraf Ghani was widely reported in the foreign press and media. Analysts and political observers expressed conflicting visions on the content and tone of the letter. Some consider it as a fundamental change in President Biden's new administration to end the longest US conflict outside its borders in history and viewed the letter as a messenger and guarantor for peace in Afghanistan. But others suspiciously perceive behind-the-scenes peace talks with Taliban futile without the participation of real representatives of the Afghan people. Taliban are the proxy group of the Pakistani Intelligence Service (ISI) and some other countries. They have been used for over two decades as an instrument for violence and destruction in Afghanistan. They have been used for the achievement of the US long-term goals in the region. The casualties that are inflicted on the people of Afghanistan every day are completely ignored. Afghan political observers consider the tone of the letter, the typical act and real essence of a colonial invading and occupying force. The letter says, “The time has come for us to present a united front in negotiating with our enemies, and you must decide now whether you desire to continue to work together or whether you want me to seek a settlement with the enemy which serves U.S. interests alone.”
The Taliban have committed horrific crimes, assassinations, suicide attacks, kidnappings, and abductions. The people of Afghanistan see the inclusion of Taliban in the government, without a well-documented and pre-guaranteed plan by the countries involved and the UN Security Council, as the beginning of another civil war. Some Afghan analysts comment Biden's urgent action and new initiatives for "peace" as a repetition of the Bonn Conference mistake made by Zalmay Khalilzad as a special envoy of the United States. The letter sounds a warning. “I must also make clear to you, Mr. President, that as our policy process continues in Washington, the United States has not ruled out any option. We are considering the full withdrawal of our forces by May 1st, as we consider other options.”
The people of Afghanistan know that Zalmay Khalilzad has fraudulently acted in the Bonn conference on his personal inclinations and friendships, ethnicity, and coercion. He was abusing his role as a special envoy in threatening and intimidating participants to bow to his instruction of who should be assigned as the head of state in the interim government. Mr Khalilzad has supported the most corrupt two unknown figures, Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani who have played a major role in empowering Taliban in Afghanistan. Therefore, the role of Khalilzad has been initially destructive and authoritarian, a major factor in perpetuating the on-going crisis in Afghanistan. Mr. Khalilzad has in fact caused the continuation of war, murder, bloodshed, and instability in Afghanistan through trickery and misinformation. He supported two “covered Taliban” in gripping power, under the name of technocrats, Karzai, and Ghani. He has never pushed Pakistan, the main guardian of Taliban, to refrain from equipping, harbouring the safe havens and providing them financial, military, and political assistance.
Mr Ghani’s record as president so far mirrors his behaviour as a deceitful and fraudulent, sentimental, and abnormal person. He has been reluctant to allow and support the national Army to fight decisively against Taliban because of his ethnic affiliation and his tendency to the Taliban. He failed to establish a broad based and all-inclusive government. There is sufficient undeniable evidence from the battlefield published on social media that Mr Ghani has intentionally drowned Afghanistan into a rolling crisis. His reluctance not to stand decisively against the Taliban since occupying the Kabul palace, by rigging and forgery in the election process, has attracted comment and criticism from allies and foes alike. Now he deserves to receive such a humiliating warning. “Even with the continuation of financial assistance from the United States to your forces after an American military withdrawal, I am concerned the security situation will worsen and that the Taliban could make rapid territorial gains.”
The People of Afghanistan have every right to expect the president to ensure their security and not submit himself to spread discord, conspiracy among various ethnic groups and not to spend his time, energy and focus elsewhere or staying in power. He is always ducking the media to avoid gaffes and his staff and bodyguards are protecting him from unscripted exchanges that he would face in public. He even sidelined his election supporter, Marshal Dostum, by conspiracy and not allowed him to act as the vice president even for a month. However, without his supporters’ vote he would never been able to win the election.
Washington intends to end the unfinished war in Afghanistan. This time the White House has promised to work together to accelerate the peace process by presenting new plans and holding a major summit under the auspices of the United Nations and the presence of influential countries in the region. The summit will be held with the support and responsibility of domestic forces and international guarantees in the form of participatory government and division of power in horizontal style. Afghanistan's political forces consider the continuation of the current situation as destructive to society and are ready to support new plans with encouraging hopes. Ashraf Ghani, against the will of the so-called "Republic" of the majority, which is corrupt and completely rotten from within and must be buried. Ghani continues to be stubbornly mad with the political rivals, regardless of the American representative. But they are suspicious about the role of Mr. Khalilazad in view of his past role as a mediator. It is unknown at this time what Mr Ghani will do after leaving the post. The new plans are like the Bonn Conference. Contrary to the predictions of politicians, analysts and journalists at the Bonn Conference, the name of Hamid Karzai was announced as the head of the interim government instead of the former Shah’s representative Prof. Satar Serat and other prominent Afghan figures inside and outside the country. In the Bonn Conference the jihadi leaders participated, and the decision was made without them. In fact, they played the role of dishwasher in that great party. Today's long war was born of the same imposed Bonn meeting, in which the national interests and security of the people were sacrificed. In the most crucial moments, Khlilzad prevented the participation and presence of worthy and honest people in the political, economic, and social life of the country, and therefore during this period in our country, unfortunately, there is still a national figure to be acceptable to all, who leads the shipwreck to the shore.
It did not happen, and this will be the most important challenge to the new proposed plan. Over the course of twenty years, Karzai and Ashraf Ghani further betrayed all ethnic groups in Afghanistan, including the Pashtun people, and by hypothetical hostilities, suppressed, defamed, marginalized, or forced national elements to flee, prolonging their survival. Incited against each other. According to most prominent political forces and different ethnic groups, Ashraf Ghani spread salt on the country's wounds. During his tenure, government assassinations became the norm, and the most horrific assassinations were government assassinations. Ashraf Ghani plays the role of "useful idiot" in the famous saying of the classics. The service of the useful idiot to the enemies is more than the people because they call themselves the representative of the people and act against the people.
Ashraf Ghani is the “supreme commander!?” of the armed forces, but the casualties escalated geometrically with more guns than ever before, targeted assassinations, the hunting of journalists, corruption in all affairs, and the continued killing of insecure people have all been part of the republic's underground conspiracies to divert public opinion from its responsibility. The "patriots" enjoy the betrayal of the homeland and the suffering of the people, and their goal is to deceive the people and serve the enemies of the homeland. Ashraf's insane opposition against everyone in these difficult days will be the greatest threat to the future of peace. He negotiates alone against everyone in the language of war.
In the new US plans, the mistakes of the Bonn Conference should not be repeated, how the division of power should be based on merit and dignity, with respect to the contribution of enlightened individuals and personalities, and respect for the interests of all Afghan tribes based on humanitarian justice. Despite the difficulties and challenges, there are encouraging hopes that this time the United States and NATO are ready to work together with influential countries in the region to accelerate the peace process. Continuing to support the current catastrophes in Afghanistan will also jeopardize the political, moral, and national interests of the United States and other countries in the region, and in particular the continued legitimacy of the moral leadership of the United States to defend democracy and human rights in other countries. The world will not give in, continuing to support Ashraf Ghani will make the dignified and responsible conditions for the withdrawal of American troops difficult and prolong the life of the war. If the new US plan is implemented, it will oblige neighbouring countries to refrain from interfering in Afghanistan.
The United States and all the countries in the region see the harm and danger of continuing the war in their own interests, and the continuation of the war in Afghanistan, which has become more critical and unstable in the current world, could lead to a possible clash of powers and all unfortunate consequences. The main motivation for optimism in the peace process is the promise of new US leaders who will then use military aircraft to overthrow imposed democracies. In the past, the United States has resorted to this tactic of opposing countries in the name of defending democracy and human rights. According to the leaders of the new US administration, this tactic has caused the world to distrust the United States. Establishing peace in Afghanistan will be America's greatest achievement and the toughest test of American promises in defence of civil liberties, human rights, and social injustice.
A Glimpse on Moscow Summit for Peace in Afghanistan:
The meeting of representatives of four countries, including the United States, Russia, China, and Pakistan started in Moscow on the 18th of March 2021. This meeting was held after unproductive ongoing closed-door talks in Doha between a high-ranking Taliban delegation and Zalmay Khalilzad, US special envoy for Afghanistan. The Doha peace talk followed by participation of a peace delegation selected by the Afghan government from among prominent political groups. The Kabul government and the Taliban were trying to prolong the so-called peace talk. The Kabul government wants to complete its presidential term. No matter how many people of Afghanistan are being killed and maimed every day. There were not any achievements in Doha Peace talk for ensuring peace and ending bloodshed for the people of Afghanistan. According to Afghan political experts, the Moscow summit will be a preparation for peace talks in Turkey in April. Because there are significant differences between the participating members regarding how the future government will be formed, the formation and composition of the interim government, and the participating delegations from Kabul have not unified opinion on the future government in Afghanistan. The foreign nations as in the Bonn conference will impose their opinion in forming the future government for Afghanistan not ensuring an all-inclusive administration which is the only way to prevent a new phase of a devastating conflict. In brief if the following issues are not addressed in the peace talk and formation of a new government the problems will persist as ever.
· The problem that led to the political crisis within Afghanistan's ruling political system lies in the structure of the political system and the change of the constitution. The current constitution, confines power in the hands of one person as president and gives full control of the 34 provinces to the capital. There is no horizontal division of power and distinct separation of three powers of government- the legislative power, the executive power, and the judicial power in Afghanistan. The president interferes in all three powers. Many times, that regrettably happened in the past. Also, there is not the delegation of power from the centre to the provinces in this highly centralized system, ruled by only one person. In this system, the president has two deputies, which in the presidential election include an election ticket, and the people vote for this ticket, which consists of three people, but when it comes to power, the deputies have not authority to appoint a minister or a head of the department. They need the signature of the president. There is no executive power in the constitution for vice presidents unless the president wishes to delegate some of his executive power to his deputies in a decree. Now, in such a political system, which in its nature it is a crisis-maker for Afghanistan, being a pluralistic and multi-ethnic society, where does sharing and division of power in an inclusive government solve this crisis.
· It is possible that some relatives, friends and acquaintances of political leaders and political groups in this division of power, participation in power or inclusive government will temporarily reach the ministerial position or presidency, but no change it will bring in the nature of the crisis. It does not create a political system. It does not lead to the horizontal distribution of power, the formation of a just political system, and a just and sustainable political development. The nature of the political system remains unjust, monopolistic, authoritarian, and totalitarian. If there is no plan and strategy to change the nature of the political structure and political system of Afghanistan for a fair and sustainable political development, at present, in such a political system the crises will be continuing. The system in its nature is conceding crisis. It is a crisis-maker for Afghanistan as a pluralistic and multi-ethnic society. Without the sharing of power and the division of power or the inclusive government how it will be possible to solve this ongoing issue? Therefore, if there is no plan and strategy to change the nature of the political structure and political system of Afghanistan for the sake of fair and sustainable political development, there is no will and determination to resolve the crisis honestly and fundamentally.
· The Presidential and Sepidar Palaces are in a hurry to consider the US plan to form a joint government to include their proposals for discussion at the Moscow-Istanbul summit. While Ashraf Ghani last week, on the opening day of the National Assembly, referring to this plan, called it a trivial paper that everyone writes and puts on the tables.
Representatives of Russia, the United States, Pakistan, and China will discuss a joint government plan with the Taliban and representatives of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan at a meeting in Moscow on 18 March. The discussion of this plan at the Istanbul Summit, which will be held under the auspices and management of the United Nations, is likely to enter a serious and decisive phase for all Afghanistan's neighbours and for the regional and global countries involved in the Afghan crisis. One of the hotspots in these debates, especially between the United States, Russia, China, and Pakistan, is the debate over who will head the joint government. We wait and see what may come out in upcoming summit in Istanbul.
As Milad Naeimi argued in an article published by The Diplomat last week, the shaping of a future peace agreement in Afghanistan appears to be taking a familiar path, prioritizing the input of elites over those of people. The resulting agreements, like that which crafted the current Afghan government, only seed the roots of future conflict among elites. “The problem with Afghanistan is that it is always in transition from a bad situation to an unclear future. And this trend is to the advantage of the elites and to the detriment of people.” He added.
The makeup of the Afghan delegation features high-profile names, sure, but many like Hekmatyar, are infamous for their roles in devastating Afghanistan in previous rounds of conflict. Can men who have failed so many times before to secure Afghanistan’s future truly chart a better way forward? Undoubtedly never.
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